Draft Scenarios

The draft is only 2 days away and short of the top 2 picks being Quarterbacks no one else knows how the draft will fall. So with the Bucs sitting at pick 9 what scenarios could they see come draft day?

The best case scenario and Tampa fan base favorite would be if somehow by shear luck Ohio State Defensive End Joey Bosa were to fall all the way down to pick 9 and make the Bucs decision easy. Now that ultimately could happen but is very unlikely as a player of that quality shouldn't fall that far but crazier things have happened in past drafts.

Trading out of the 9th pick is another popular scenario if Bosa or some other top player isn't there that the Bucs really like. This option is also my personal favorite as we would be able to add more picks and give Jason Licht more ammo to attack the draft. Yes, it takes two to tango on a draft day trade but it seems the Titans are looking to get back in the top 10 for a left tackle to protect their franchise QB and that seems like an easy connection there.

Staying at pick 9 is an option only if they truly value a player of being worthy of that selection. Do the Bucs value Sheldon Rankins or Shaq Lawson that highly to be selected there or is that a reach? Tampa needs defense but Licht is adamant that he picks based on best player on his board not to need.

Last option is trading up to go get someone. I strongly disagree with that option as the Bucs are not a team that is only 1 player away right now. Even if say, Jalen Ramsey somehow falls to pick 6 or 7, I would still not jump ahead and risk losing a hand full of picks for one player.

Jason Licht has plenty of options and scenarios to run through his head before draft day and up until our pick. I believe the Bucs best option is to trade down and collect more picks but lets see what path Licht and company choose.

Case For Shaq Lawson At 9th Overall

The draft is almost here and one thing is for certain the Buccaneers will be adding at least a couple of defensive lineman. The top lineman is Joey Bosa as he brings fundamentals along with a non-stop motor, but will likely be gone before the Bucs are up at 9th overall. Unless the Bucs trade up, most likely the best options at D-line will be Shaq Lawson, or Sheldon Rankins. I believe the best move for the Bucs is to trade down and acquire more picks especially in a draft where there is great value in the second and third rounds. Unless Notre Dame's left tackle Ronnie Stanley is there, I think the Bucs should take DE Shaq Lawson out of Clemson.

Lawson is the most complete defensive end behind Joey Bosa who will likely be a top 5 pick. Lawson is 6'3 269lbs with 33 inch arms and has speed to go with it, running a 4.70 40, 4.21 shuttle which is good for short area quickness. Lawson is good with his hands and has a variety of pass rush moves including a nice spin move which he used to beat top prospect Ronnie Stanley.

#Clemson's Shaq Lawson isn't without concerns, but his spin move is fun to watch. Notice balance/control after spin pic.twitter.com/QVxqsUwIbw

— Eric Galko (@OptimumScouting) December 29, 2015

Lawson had a great 2015 season, putting up 12.5 sacks and 25.5 tackles for loss, leading Clemson to a national title appearance. Lawson brings a power game, but is able to convert that power to speed making him a consistent pass rush threat. Lawson has great intangibles as he has great character, and he loves the game of football. Best example of that is when he played in the championship game with a severe mcl sprain showing his toughness and passion for the game.

The Bucs could use Lawson at either end spot or move him inside at tackle at times, and would be able to stand up in a 3-4 scheme as well. Bucs fans are scared of Clemson players due to past busts in Daquan Bowers, and Gaines Adams. Lawson is more advanced than both of those guys coming out of college, and is a more complete defensive end. Lawson wants to be great and paring him with McCoy and Jack Smith could make the Bucs pass rush fierce. If the Bucs cant move down, they shouldnt hesitate to take Lawson as he will bring the team a complete defensive end.

Trying to be great https://t.co/Mgvez69dKj

— Shaq Lawson (@Shaq_Lawson90) March 23, 2016

Drafting Sheldon Rankins at number 9?

Every Bucs fan realizes that the pass rush needs to be upgraded this offseason and that process has already begun with the signing of Robert Ayers, but what about the draft? The top local source to all Bucs news Pewterreport.com has the Bucs taking defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins with the ninth overall pick. Per Scott Reynolds of Pewterreport.com

ROUND 1 – Louisville DT Sheldon Rankins – 6-1, 299 – Junior Why a defensive tackle with the ninth overall selection when defensive end is the more pressing need? This pick probably comes as a surprise to most Bucs fans, but drafting for need rarely leads to success in the NFL. Defensive tackle is the strongest position in this draft and the Bucs are poised to grab the best prospect. Great three-technique defensive tackles like Rankins, who compares favorably to Pro Bowler Geno Atkins, who was coached by new defensive line coach Jay Hayes in Cincinnati, are hard to find, and typically go in the first round. 

I stand to agree with Pewterreport on this one as he has done nothing but produce at the college level with 18 sacks and 31.5 tackles for loss in 4 years. What makes Rankins special is his quickness and strength. The way Rankins can move for a man 300 lbs is very rare. Although only 6'1, Rankins rarely gets pushed back away from the play. He has a natural nose for the ball and a consistent motor that can be seen as he frequently runs the play down from behind. Louisville didn't utilize Rankins to his fullest abilities as he was often split out wide to take on longer left tackles in space which isn't his game.

The comparison to Geno Atkins fits the bill in my opinion. Both stand 6'1 but Rankins arms are longer (33 5/8 inches) which will only help with leverage. Rankins is best at using his quickness inside where he abuses slower guards and centers. He would be an upgrade to the pass rush but wouldn't solve the lack of edge rush the Bucs need. Drafting Rankins would be a prime example of drafting talent over need as the Bucs have Clint McDonald and Akeem Spence who are both better than average defensive tackles.

The Bucs are sitting in a good position at number 9 as they will have a tough yet welcomed decision to choose between Rankins and most likely the best defensive end that will be on the board in Shaq Lawson.

Will The New Signings Affect the Draft?

Will the Bucs change their approach to the draft after going out and spending some money on new additions J.R. Sweezy, Brent Grimes and Robert Ayers? Most likely the answer is no. Although the new players added to the roster will help, the Bucs need an influx of talent across the board except for QB.

Grimes, 33 and Ayers, 30 are already past their prime and will be players to help right now. So that won't factor into what the future holds for the number 9 pick as the Bucs will not pass on a talent like Shaq Lawson, Noah Spence or Vernon Hargreaves if they value them as one of the top rated players on their board. Without question the pick will most likely be on the defensive side of the ball and that fits well with the strength of the draft.

Free agency is still young and the Bucs will still bring in more pieces, but I believe the big spending is over and most of the attention will reside on the draft.

Update:Vernon on Bucs Radar

Update: Looks like the Dolphins have removed the transition tag on Olivier Vernon, making him a free agent. He will have competition for his services. Bucs better move fast if they want him.

Dolphins have pulled the transition tag on LB/DE on Olivier Vernon, per source. Now a free agent. Will command big dollars.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 9, 2016

Reports are coming out that Jason Licht and the Bucs will be a big player in the race to get prized edge rusher Olivier Vernon, Per Gil Arcia

Source: #Bucs will aggressively go after Vernon https://t.co/kCJhx2hAId

— Gil Arcia (@GilArciaTBC) March 9, 2016

Olivier Vernon is without question the best edge rusher available when the free agency bell rings and it looks as if the Bucs have set there eyes on him. Hopefully the Glazers have their private jet fueled and ready to pick up Vernon and not let him leave. Vernon would be a home run addition as he is still only 25 and has his best years in front of him. Signing him and adding another edge rusher in the draft (maybe Shaq Lawson) would be a major overhaul of a weak D-line. First things first, lets get Vernon here for a visit.

Questionable Mock Draft

Any true Bucs fan knows the biggest weakness of this team is pass rush and that it will be addressed in the draft and/or free agency. Late last night a fan polled mocked draft came up with some very confusing results via @DraftRT

Dolphins select DeForest Buckner, DL, Oregon.
Tampa Bay is now on the clock.

— 2016 NFL Draft (@DraftRT) March 6, 2016

Eli Apple hasn't really been in the top 10 radar yet he shows up here. With all due respect to Apple the Bucs have other needs and to be honest there will be more talented players on the board. More in depth analysis of Apple later, but the big problem here is how could he be taken over both Shaq Lawson and Noah Spence. I am really high on Shaq Lawson and believe if he is available, he will be the selection for Tampa Bay. The obvious fact of a better pass rush helps a poor secondary needs to be realized.

The Strength of This Draft Is on Defense

The NFL scouting combine has concluded and after thinking about what I have seen the past few days I'm pretty excited to see what the Bucs do in this upcoming draft. The word from scouts and general managers were that this draft was heavy on the defensive side of the ball, and I would say the combine definitely proved that to be true.  Former scout Daniel Jeremiah agrees that its a good year to draft defense.

This draft class is very lopsided in favor of the defense.

— Daniel Jeremiah (@MoveTheSticks) February 28, 2016

Watching yesterday and today, it just seemed like big name after big name was showing up, and it was really exciting to watch. Potential targets for the Bucs really showed up as Noah Spence, Shaq Lawson, Leonard Floyd, and Vernon Hargreaves all had strong showings. I thought Lawson and Floyd really helped their draft stock and cemented their first round status. They were both more fluid and athletic than I thought they were going to be as both ran really good 40's with 4.7 and 4.6 respectively. Both would be targets for the Bucs if they decide trading down is the best option.

With that being said I still feel its going to be Noah Spence at 9, he is the best edge rusher in this draft and the depth at defensive end is just not as strong like it is at defensive tackle. Spence could be that special edge guy the Bucs have been looking for the past decade. Spence has the quickness and just understands how to pass rush. All I know is Jason Licht and his crew have to be pretty excited about this defensive draft class, and it should help the teams woes on that side of the ball. The Bucs have multiple options for their first pick and should get a really good player on that side of the ball. Here is video per nflbreakdown.com showing Spence's quickness of the edge.

Should The Bucs Trade Down?

The Bucs have the 9th pick in the upcoming NFL draft which should land them a pretty good player. However, could the Bucs possibly be looking at trading down to acquire more picks in a draft that has good day 2 and 3 value. I think Jason Licht and his staff will consider it as the players they covet could be off the board by the time pick 9 rolls around. Guys like Bosa, Ramsey, Jack, Tunsil, Stanley, and perhaps Noah Spence will likely be picked before the Bucs are up, which makes the move to trade down seem more logical.

Unfortunately it takes two to tango in a trade scenario, and there would need to be a coveted player still left on the board. I could see a team willing to trade up for Deforest Buckner, Jaylon Smith, or Vernon Hargreaves, as they might be higher on other teams boards. If the Bucs do look to trade down, I would try to move down anywhere in the 13-15 range where you would be able to get potentially a good value guy in Clemson DE Shaq Lawson or Ole Miss DT/DE Robert Nkemdiche whom both would bolster the Dline. Then with the extra picks, the Bucs could be aggressive and target certain players. For instance, perhaps a cornerback like William Jackson out of Houston or a playmaker like Will Fuller out of Notre Dame. Still long way to go till the Draft, these are just a couple of possible scenarios that could happen. The good news for the Bucs is that Jason Licht is smart and will take the best route for the team. Here are some highlights of Houston cornerback, William Jackson III.

What about Shaq?

All the attention right now is all toward Noah Spence and about how high he's rising up draft boards due to his tremendous showing during the senior bowl. Bucs fans are being frantic already thinking he will not be available at pick 9 when just weeks before he was barely considered a first round pick. Time will tell with Spence but a more complete player that doesn't have all the athletic gifts that Spence has is Shaq Lawson and he would look just fine in red and pewter.

Shaq Lawson, out of Clemson stands 6'3 270 and compiled 12.5 sacks, 60 tackles and 25.5 tackles for loss last year as a true junior. Most buc fans get scared at the thought of a Clemson DE to the late Gaines Adams who was a flop in Tampa, but Lawson is a different player. Unlike Adams, Lawson can play both the pass and the rush. He already has an NFL body and is strong enough to anchor against left tackles. In pass rush situations Lawson shows his technique on many occasions by using his violent and active hands to prevent tackles from locking down on him and pushing him out of plays. The guy played in every game since his freshman year at Clemson and even played in the National Championship game with a sprained MCL, where he ended up with 2 sacks.

His biggest knock is not having the elite speed and get off that Spence has and not many have that but Lawson can bring so much more to the table from day one. As stated before pass rush should be the bucs biggest priority this offseason and Shaq can bring that. He will be on display next week at the scouting combine and so will every other prospect hoping to get drafted. More news and rumors will surely start to fire up.